Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Mirror, Mirror, On the Wall . . . Part 3

Knowledge without action is futile.  Abu Bakr

Do you really want to know your future?  But if you now acted upon that knowledge in a manner in which you would not have, had you not known your future, haven't you just altered your future?  It's a bit of a philosophical conundrum played over & over again in different movies under the guise of time travel.  In it's most common form, the protagonist is warned not to change anything in the past during time travel lest s/he alter the present/future.

But with that said, what if you made use of the information for the better.  Case in point is a study published this week in Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology in which the authors report having developed & validated a 10 year risk calculator that predicts dementia risk in those with type 2 diabetes.  Using a model derived from microvascular disease, diabetic foot, cerebrovascular disease, cardiovascular disease, acute metabolic events, depression, age & education, the authors were able to predict dementia risk with reasonable accuracy.  Those with the lowest score had only 5.3% risk of developing dementia compared to those with the highest score who had a 73.3% risk.  

My question is this: why go through the trouble of estimating/predicting your risk for developing dementia if you're not going to do anything to lower your risk?  The calculator & prediction model is not immutable.  You're not destined to repeat your errors if you learn from them.  Improve your nutrition.  Get physically active on a regular basis.  Optimize your risk factors as noted above.  Take control of your future.





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